A recent poll put Trump ahead by one point of Hillary Clinton. That is hardly anything to get excited about. Most polls have a margin of error of two points, which means he could actually one point behind Hillary. That being said, all it really tells you is that this is going to be a tight election. It is still possible he could end up having a landslide but given the general distaste for both candidates I don’t see a landslide for either one happening.
That being said, it is very likely that the electoral votes will be split down the middle, each one receiving 267. If that is case it will only take one third party candidate to take the Election to the House. The most likely case at this point is Utah and Evan McMullin. McMullin actually stands a good chance of taking Utah, one because he is Mormon and two because so many Mormons do not like Trump. During the primaries, Utah voted overwhelmingly for Cruz over Trump. And you should not take the Mormon vote very lightly. There are 5 million Mormons in the United States. To make the math easier let’s say 1 million are below voting age and the rest will be voting tomorrow. Next, the majority of Mormons are Republicans. So out of the four million left, we will say 3 million are Republicans. So even if Trump doesn’t take Utah and if the primaries are any indication, he won’t, that doesn’t mean it goes to Hillary. In this case, it means it goes to Evan.
If Facebook is any indication, many Mormons have said they would vote for Evan over the other two candidates because they feel he is a better presidential material. While it is true Evan is not popular with the average voter, if he could get the Mormon base in Utah to pull the lever for him he could potentially win. If that happens it changes the game. No longer could people say that third parties are immaterial and it would start the dismantling of the two party system. Another contender is Gary Johnson. The good thing about Johnson is he is on every ballot (or nearly all of them) in the country and indeed has quite the following that he too could put a dent in the outcome.
I predict we are going to see more write ins than have ever seen before. Whether they are for Tom Hoefling, Mike Maturen, Darrell Castle or any of the others running, I do predict we will see a great uptick in write-in votes. Many people who don’t live in battleground states don’t feel the need to vote for the two parties running and are voting for candidates on the third party ticket.
So these are my predictions:
- Neither candidate will have a landslide victory
- Write in votes will be more than anyone predicted
- One third party candidate will take a state and potentially give us a house election
- It is going to be a much tighter race.
We will see if my predictions are right and it if they are maybe I will be able keep my Political Science degree. LOL